In 2025, the global counterfeit goods market is estimated to be around $467 billion annually according to the latest OECD and EUIPO reports—almost half a trillion dollars of direct counterfeit product trade. This represents about 2.3% of global imports. While earlier estimates in the trillions are cited too, those include broader economic impacts and piracy beyond physical counterfeit goods.

For FMCG, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods companies, understanding the real scale of counterfeiting is critical. Losing millions—or billions—in revenue from fake versions of your products is just the starting point. The hidden costs to your brand’s reputation, legal liabilities, and customer trust multiply the impact exponentially.

So what does the ROI of fighting counterfeits look like today? It’s not just about the immediate revenue recovered. It’s about minimizing long-term brand damage, reducing legal and enforcement costs, preserving customer lifetime value, and building operational intelligence that makes your enforcement more efficient over time. Here’s how it breaks down.

What Counterfeiting Really Costs Your Business

First, consider lost sales. If your products have a counterfeit penetration rate of 10%, that’s 10% of potential revenue lost. On a brand selling millions of units yearly, this translates to millions or tens of millions of dollars missed directly.

But there’s more. Studies show that 66% of consumers who unknowingly bought counterfeits never return. Their lifetime value—potentially 5 to 10 times their initial transaction—is gone forever. Plus, 27% actively warn friends not to buy your brand. One counterfeit sale damages not just revenue but the entire customer relationship and market perception.

Legal and enforcement expenses add layers of cost. Brands spend millions annually pursuing counterfeiters through litigation, investigations, and market actions. Without targeted data, much of this spend is inefficient.

Compliance costs for regulations like the EU’s PPWR, US DSCSA, and future Digital Product Passports include investments in serialization, traceability, and authentication technology. Initial costs might be in the mid-six to low-seven digits for mid-market brands globally. However, regulatory penalties for non-compliance can reach tens of millions, or worse, result in exclusion from key markets.

Brand Protection Investment: The Real Payback

Investing in invisible cryptographic signature technology for product authentication costs a fraction of traditional hardware-heavy solutions. With upfront investments often near $1 million for global mid-market deployments, the cost per unit becomes minimal since signatures are embedded during artwork prepress with no special inks or line changes.

This investment delivers rapid returns. Reducing counterfeit infiltration by 30% can recover millions in revenue in the first year alone. Enforcement costs often decline by 30-50% due to data-driven takedown operations, saving millions more.

Beyond direct financial returns, brand equity preservation compounds benefits over time. Rebuilding lost trust can cost 10 to 25 times more than preventing counterfeit exposure in the first place. Early data-driven enforcement also enables faster responses to emerging threats before widespread damage occurs.

The Multiplier Effect of Scan Telemetry and Intelligence

One of the least quantified but most powerful ROI drivers is data intelligence generated by widespread product authentication scans. Every verification creates geo-tagged, time-stamped insights showing where counterfeits concentrate.

This enables precision enforcement resources deployment. Brands no longer spray budgets across territories hoping to catch counterfeit rings. Instead, they target enforcement and legal action with surgical accuracy.

Supply chain partners and e-commerce platforms get monitored in real-time. Fraudulent listings and unauthorized distributors can be quickly identified and shut down.

This intelligence drives operational efficiency, reduces legal risk, and enhances brand protection ROI materially.

The Cost of Ignoring Counterfeiting

Ignoring counterfeit threats—or underinvesting in protection—amplifies risks exponentially:

• Revenue loss compounds as counterfeiters gain market share continuously.

• Brand damage multiplies with each consumer exposed to fake products.

• Legal costs balloon as enforcement shifts from targeted takedowns to broad, reactive sweeps.

• Regulatory penalties for non-compliance threaten market exclusion.

• Consumer trust erodes permanently, impacting growth and margins.

• Your operational and enforcement teams work blindly, wasting resources.

Simply put, the cost of doing nothing vastly exceeds the cost of protection.

The Hard Numbers in Action

Consider a mid-market FMCG brand selling 50 million units a year at $20 each. With 10% counterfeit infiltration that's 5 million fake units.

If each counterfeit-driven lost sale also destroys customer lifetime value worth $120 (including lost margin and lifetime purchases), that's a $600 million impact in revenue and brand erosion per year.

Assuming a proactive brand protection program reduces infiltration by 30% in year one, that recovers $180 million in revenue immediately.

If legal and enforcement costs decline from $7 million to $3 million with targeted data, that's $4 million saved.

Regulatory compliance avoids potential $50 million fines or market blockades.

This totals $234 million in annual financial benefit against approximately $1 million technology investment. Payback: fewer than two months. Beyond year one, continued benefits yield an extraordinary ROI.

Why Brand Protection Is A Winning Investment

It protects revenue directly and preserves the value of every customer relationship.

It reduces hard enforcement costs and legal fees while improving litigation outcomes.

It builds operational intelligence that makes teams more effective and enforcement faster.

It underpins regulatory compliance, avoiding costly penalties and market risks.

And it safeguards brand equity as counterfeiter sophistication grows.

Questions Many C-Suite Leaders Ask

Is this ROI calculation realistic?
Absolutely. It’s based on real-world results from brands protecting billions of packages globally. Verified reductions of 30-40% counterfeit infiltration are standard.

What if our counterfeit rate is under 10%?
ROI scales linearly. Even a 5% rate causes significant damage and an effective 15% reduction results in strong returns.

How fast will results appear?
Positive revenue impact often appears within months. Full ROI realizes in 12-18 months.

Does this work in traditional retail and e-commerce channels alike?
Yes. Smartphone-based authentication means customers verify products anywhere, while data feeds enforcement in all channels.

Boardroom Imperatives

Brand protection is no cost center. It’s the highest-impact investment against a near existential threat.

The data is unequivocal. Those who invest now hit revenue targets, defend margins, and build long-term competitive advantage.

Those who delay embrace a slow erosion of market share, sky-rocketing enforcement costs, and brand damage that is costly or impossible to reverse.

Compliance and protection are converging. C-Suite leaders must see them as a single strategy.